Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to average 30.5% year-on-year in 2025 and settle at 27.1% by December 2025.
According to the latest NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor report, the forecast is based on the premise that headline inflation is expected to remain sticky in September 2025 but settle below 30.0% from September 2025, as high petrol cost gets smoothened out of the year-on-year headline inflation, barring any unexpected negative shocks to petrol prices.
Inflation remains a central concern for Nigeria’s economy, with rising fuel costs and currency depreciation driving up expenses across all sectors.
The report stated, “We expect headline inflation to remain sticky in 9M:25 but settle below 30.0 per cent from September 2025 as high petrol cost gets smoothened out of the year-on-year headline inflation, barring any unexpected negative shocks to petrol prices.
In addition to our prognosis on the USD/NGN pair, fiscal deficits, and food supplies, this expectation informs our forecast that the headline inflation may average 30.5 per cent y/y in 2025 and settle at 27.1 per cent by December 2025.
Overall, we estimate the Nigerian economy to grow by 3.5% y/y in 2025 from an estimated 3.2% y/y in 2024.
However, the performance across sectors was uneven. Agriculture emerged as the top-performing sector with a net balance of +13.93, spurred by heightened harvest activities and increased demand for produce.
Non-manufacturing industries also showed resilience, recording a net balance of +5.80. In contrast, the manufacturing, trade, and services sectors faced significant challenges.
The Future Business Expectation Index, which reflects optimism about future business conditions, settled at +28.61 in December 2024, down slightly from +33.17 in November.
