Chinese exports rose last month despite the trade war raging with the United States, official data showed Friday, ahead of talks between the world’s top two economies towards easing the standoff.
Experts said that the forecast-smashing 8.1-percent rise indicated that Beijing was re-routing trade to Southeast Asia to mitigate US tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese imports imposed by President Donald Trump.
Trade between the world’s two largest economies has slumped since Trump imposed the tariffs — some cumulative duties are 245 percent — and China responded with levies of 125 percent and other measures.
The year-on-year increase in exports of 8.1 percent in April was much higher than the 2.0 percent forecast by analysts polled by Bloomberg last month.
The data from the Chinese customs bureau showed exports to Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam surged by double digits, in what one analyst called a “structural repositioning” of trade.
“The global supply chain is being rerouted in real time,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management wrote in a note.
“Vietnam looks set to become China’s offshore escape hatch for US-facing goods,” he said.
“The manufacturing juggernaut is diverting flow wherever the tariff pain isn’t.”
Month-on-month exports to the United States plunged 17.6 percent.
Analysts at ANZ Research said the data revealed “it is difficult to exclude China from the global supply chain in the short term, considering China’s role in manufacturing.”
“The implied supply chain realignment as well as the expected outcome of Asia-US trade talks suggests no imminent collapse in China exports,” they added.
Global markets have been on a rollercoaster since Trump began his tariff offensive aimed, according to the White House at bringing back manufacturing to the United States.
While Trump has suspended for 90 days many of the most painful levies, those on China have remained in place.
Markets have been lifted by optimism over meetings set to take place in Geneva over the weekend between US and Chinese officials — the first talks between the superpowers since Trump’s trade offensive began.
Washington has said it hopes the sitdown will allow for a “de-escalation”, while Beijing has vowed it will stand its ground and defend its interests.
