Nigeria’s average crude oil production rose slightly to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday.
The figure represents a marginal increase from 1.39 million bpd recorded in September, but remains below the country’s OPEC production quota of around 1.5 million bpd. October marks the third consecutive month that Nigeria has missed its assigned target, following its last compliance in July 2025.
The persistent production shortfall comes as Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, prepares to request a higher output quota at the upcoming OPEC meeting scheduled for later this month.
Speaking recently in an interview with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s media team, Lokpobiri argued that Nigeria’s current quota no longer reflects its true production capacity.
“The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly make a case for a higher quota for Nigeria. I believe there’s no better time than now to push for our quota to be reviewed upward to two million barrels per day or more,”
— Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil).
According to OPEC data, Nigeria’s crude output averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter—underscoring ongoing challenges in sustaining production despite renewed government efforts and new upstream investments.
Globally, OPEC reported that oil supply in October exceeded demand by about 500,000 bpd, reversing the 400,000-bpd deficit recorded in September. The increase was largely driven by non-OPEC producers, particularly the United States, which accounted for over half of the 890,000-bpd rise in global output.
The oil market continues to grapple with mixed signals—slower global demand growth on one hand, and expanding non-OPEC production on the other—keeping oil prices volatile, fluctuating between $82 and $86 per barrel in recent weeks.
OPEC’s report also highlights fluctuations in Nigeria’s monthly production this year. Output averaged 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter, rose slightly to 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter, and slipped to 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter. Monthly figures show a peak of 1.529 million bpd in April, followed by a steady decline to 1.401 million bpd by September.
