Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76 trillion in potential revenue due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from January 2025 to January 2026.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that the country’s crude oil production fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months during 2025 and in January 2026, despite moderately strong global crude prices.
- January 2025: Production slightly exceeded the quota at 1.54 mbpd.
- February – May 2025: Production fell below quota, with shortfalls ranging from 840,000 barrels (Feb) to 3.1 million barrels (Mar).
- August – December 2025: Continued underproduction, with the largest deficit in September (3.3 million barrels).
- Net shortfall: After accounting for months with surpluses, the total deficit over the 13-month period amounted to approximately 18.12 million barrels, translating to N1.76 trillion at an average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel and N1,353/$ exchange rate.
Despite these shortfalls, Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reached 530.41 million barrels, generating about N55.5 trillion in gross revenue. Analysts note that the lost revenue highlights structural challenges in the oil sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security issues in the Niger Delta, and production inefficiencies.
Experts, including Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, stressed that achieving production targets requires practical, on-the-ground actions, such as:
- Improved security around oil assets
- Reducing operational disruptions
- Fast-tracking regulatory approvals
- Creating a stable operating environment for existing fields
The new Chief Executive of NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to optimize production and expand revenue, with a vision aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, aiming for 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.
The data underscores the volatility of Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy and the critical need for infrastructure, security, and regulatory stability to meet OPEC quotas and maximize revenue.
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