The escalating crisis in the Middle East is putting significant pressure on Africa’s fuel supply, with several countries now left with only weeks of petroleum reserves as key import routes face disruption.
The situation is linked to tensions involving Iran, which have affected shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital channel for global energy supplies.
According to the International Energy Agency, about 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products meant for Africa are at risk as tanker movement through the route slows drastically.
The disruption has forced African nations to scramble for alternative sources, amid concerns that wealthier countries may outbid them in the global market.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows a sharp drop in fuel shipments, declining from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February—a 68.4 percent decrease—before falling to zero in March, indicating a complete breakdown in supply within three months.
The crisis has exposed Africa’s heavy reliance on imported refined petroleum products, largely due to years of declining refinery capacity and underinvestment across the continent.
Countries in East and Southern Africa are among the hardest hit. In Kenya, which relies entirely on imports, fuel reserves are estimated to last just 21 days. Officials warn that shortages are already affecting supply, especially in rural areas.
Similarly, Ethiopia has urged citizens to cut fuel consumption, prioritising essential services as supplies tighten.
In West Africa, the shortfall is increasingly being filled by imports from Russia, reflecting a shift in global fuel trade patterns as suppliers redirect shipments to more profitable markets in Asia.
For Nigeria, the impact appears less severe due to local refining capacity, particularly the Dangote Refinery, which has boosted domestic supply since beginning operations in 2024. However, experts note that the country still depends partly on imported crude, leaving it somewhat exposed.
Analysts warn that the ongoing crisis could drive up fuel prices and deepen energy insecurity across Africa. They stress the need for increased investment in local refining and diversification of supply sources to reduce vulnerability to global disruptions.
