The International Monetary Fund has warned that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could trigger a rise in global inflation, particularly if energy prices remain elevated.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the organisation is closely monitoring the economic impact of the crisis, noting that prolonged high oil prices could significantly affect global economies.
According to her, if crude oil prices stay above $100 per barrel for an extended period, global inflation could increase by up to two percentage points, while economic output may decline by about one percentage point.
Despite the growing tensions, Kozack confirmed that no country has yet requested emergency financial assistance from the IMF in response to the crisis.
The conflict, which began after strikes by the United States and Israel, has disrupted global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a key channel for oil and gas shipments.
The disruption has already driven up oil prices, with Brent crude trading above $110 per barrel, raising concerns about broader economic consequences.
The IMF also warned that the most vulnerable economies would be hardest hit, as they have limited capacity to absorb shocks. In addition to energy costs, the conflict is affecting fertiliser shipments and transportation, increasing the risk of rising global food prices.
The fund said it will continue to track developments in commodity markets and global financial conditions as the situation evolves.
