The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised upward its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025, citing a boom in AI-related goods and a rush of exports to the U.S. ahead of incoming tariff hikes by President Donald Trump.
📈 Key 2025 Trade Forecast Updates:
- New 2025 Growth Forecast: 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August.
- 2026 Growth Outlook: Cut to 0.5%, down from 1.8%, due to expected economic fallout from U.S. tariffs.
🔍 Drivers of 2025 Trade Surge:
- 📦 AI Boom: Increased global demand for AI-related hardware and technologies.
- 🇺🇸 Tariff-Driven Surge: Countries boosted exports to the U.S. in anticipation of new import tariffs.
- 🌍 Emerging Market Resilience: Strong trade activity among emerging economies and “rest of world” helped cushion global trade.
🇺🇸 Impact of Trump’s Tariffs:
- Trump, since returning to office in January 2025, has imposed a 10% base tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries and products.
- The WTO has had to revise forecasts multiple times due to uncertainty over these sweeping trade policies.
🗨️ WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:
“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025.”
⚠️ Outlook for 2026:
The WTO cautioned that the true economic drag from U.S. tariffs will become more visible in 2026, likely stifling global trade momentum and dampening business confidence worldwide.
